Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETF net assets fell to $77.58 billion on Tuesday, the lowest level since the last presidential election, notwithstanding the most crypto-friendly regulatory environment in US history.
Every Post-Election Gain Is Gone Despite The Best Regulatory Climate Ever
Total net assets across all 11 US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $169.54 billion in October 2025 and have since lost more than half that value.
Cumulative net inflows since inception peaked at $62.77 billion in October 2025 and have since declined by nearly $9 billion to $53.77 billion, the lowest level since August last year.
The regulatory backdrop makes the exodus harder to explain on policy grounds alone. The SEC dropped multiple high-profile enforcement actions, the US established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and the CLARITY Act is advancing through Congress.
None of it has stopped the outflows, which now total over $5 billion across four weeks.
Analysts point to macro forces instead. Binance Research cited elevated inflation driving the Fed hawkish while suppressing risk appetite.
Former 21Shares co-founder Ophelia Snyder pointed to AI, SpaceX, and other high-profile growth stories competing directly for the same capital that would otherwise flow into Bitcoin ETFs.
Historical Pattern Points To $44K As The Real Cycle Bottom
Analyst Jason Williams laid out a data-driven case on X that the bottom is not in. Bitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis across all holders, currently sits at $53,600.
Every prior cycle bottom occurred below the realized price, with the discount ranging from 58% in 2011 to 34% in 2022.
Williams argues that declining discount percentages follow a clear pattern and the next bottom will land roughly 17% below the realized price.
That math puts the floor at $44,488. “Bookmark this because I know I’m right,” he wrote.
RSI At 23 But Death Cross Still Active Overhead
Bitcoin trades near $61K with RSI at 23.37, deeply oversold and stretched to the downside.
However, the death cross from November 2025 remains active with the 20-day SMA at $69,390, 50-day SMA at $75,007, and 200-day SMA at $78,129 all stacked bearishly overhead.
Reclaiming the 20-day EMA at $67,881 and then the 50-day EMA at $71,974 would mark the first steps toward shifting the trend from selling rallies to buying dips.
Until then, every bounce runs into overhead supply from trapped holders looking to exit.
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